118 FXUS63 KGRR 122247 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 547 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and warmer through the weekend - Rain, possibly followed by snow next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 108 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026 - Dry and warmer through the weekend A large area of high pressure over the middle of the country will move southeast to the Carolinas by the weekend. We`ll benefit from the high pressure in the form of dry weather and sunshine through the weekend. A strong southern stream system will move east across the Deep South late in the weekend spreading rain as far north as central IN/OH. Concurrent with that, a northern stream low will move east across Ontario and drag a cold front into northern Lower Monday. However, that system will be too far north for any precipitation over the cwa. A slow warming trend is expected through the weekend as heights aloft continue to rise. Highs Saturday in the lower 40s will edge up into the mid 40s Sunday and Monday and upper 40s Tuesday. - Rain, possibly followed by snow next week The aforementioned cold front will slowly sink south across northern Lower, but get hung up by south flow ahead of a Colorado low moving east across the Plains late Tuesday. Warm advection/isentropic lift will result in rain developing over the cwa Tuesday evening and continuing into Wednesday. As the low moves east along I-80, rain will lift northward Wednesday night and gradually diminish Thursday, perhaps as some light snow as colder air works south behind the low. Another system behind that low will tap into some of the colder air and generate some mixed precipitation Friday along with potentially accumulating snow. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 547 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026 Satellite shows clear skies across the terminals leading to widespread VFR conditions. VFR is forecast to continue through the TAF period as high pressure and a dry airmass limits cloud development. The one caveat is the potential for fog tonight near daybreak. Favorable radiational cooling conditions will be in place suggesting areas of fog cannot be ruled out. A perusal of guidance this evening suggests models are running too moist with dewpoints and by extension crossover temps. Confidence in MVFR conditions is low, roughly 20-30%, not warranting a TAF mention. However, if we can get greater radiational cooling than expected, at least temporary reductions to MVFR and lower are possible. If we do get any fog, that is favored to be from 09z-14z and at AZO. Expect light and variable winds tonight becoming southwesterly around 10 knots Friday afternoon. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...04 AVIATION...Thomas

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion