208 FXUS63 KGRR 051135 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 735 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmth gives way to increasing chance of rain by late Monday - Frost/Freeze conditions for mid-week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 141 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 - Warmth gives way to increasing chance of rain by late Monday Upper ridging and southwest flow persists today into Monday with 850 mb temps around 14-15C and highs in the 80s. Winds will pick up today as surface pressure gradient tightens. Height falls occur on Monday as low level moisture return increases ahead of an advancing western CONUS trough, with deep moisture streaming up from the Gulf. A cold front is expected to focus showers and a few thunderstorms Monday evening into Tuesday morning. Instability is limited but forecast wind profiles show 30 knots of unidirectional deep layer shear and suggest linear convection is possible along/ahead of the front Monday evening. The front clears Lower Michigan by Tuesday night with dry northerly flow as high pressure builds in. - Frost/Freeze conditions for mid-week As the climatological end of the growing season approaches this week, we will see frost by Wednesday morning with a better chance for frost and freezing conditions Thursday morning as the surface ridge axis moves across Lower Michigan. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 735 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 VFR conditions will continue through tonight. Winds will be on the increase today with southwest winds gusting over 20 knots at times this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 141 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 Winds and waves will be hazardous to small craft through Monday. A cold front will move through MOnday night into Tuesday morning with the potential for a few lightning strikes, then north winds will increase Tuesday afternoon as high pressure builds in, with some gusts over 20 knots during the afternoon and evening. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday afternoon for MIZ037-043- 050-056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for LMZ845>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ostuno AVIATION...Ostuno MARINE...Ostuno

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion