308
FXUS63 KGRR 161007
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
507 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cool and Breezy Today
- Snow to Rain Late Monday Night into Tuesday
- Additional Chances For Rain Wednesday Night into Friday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025
- Cool and Breezy Today
Breezy conditions continue as northwest winds are expected to gust
to 35 mph throughout the day. This is due to the stronger and
colder air aloft that has moved in behind the cold front from
yesterday. High temperatures will only be in the upper 30s to mid
40s today compared to yesterday`s 50s and 60s.
With the colder air there is a 20 to 30 percent chance for lake
effect showers to clip northwestern portions of Clare County. If
winds shift more to the north this band could move further west
into the county. Amounts are expected to remain under an inch
with the probability of an inch or more only 10 percent.
- Snow to Rain Late Monday Night into Tuesday
Monday will be largely dry as we will be under subsidence and a
dry air mass. Monday night a shortwave trough and associated
vorticity maximum move from the Colorado area into the southern
Great Lakes. A moisture gradient is likely to develop over the
area with deeper moisture likely across southwest Lower Michigan.
Looking at the moisture profile we`ll gradually saturate from top
down, this will likely take time with the dry air mass in place.
Looking at various solutions temperatures should be cold enough
with the wet bulb effect for snow to start initially late Monday
night into Tuesday morning, however as we go through the day we
lose cloud ice and therefore are expected to see a transition to
rain. Temperatures are marginal at the moment as to if there will
be a freezing rain concern. Soil temperatures are still in the 40s
and around 50 toward the I-94 corridor which should keep surfaces
at or a few degrees warmer than the air temperature. Any
accumulations are expected to be light with the marginal
temperatures. The probability of a half inch or more is only 20
percent.
- Additional Chances For Rain Wednesday Night into Friday
Later into the week there remains some uncertainty with details
in the forecast. A weak shortwave trough may cause some showers to
develop Wednesday night (20 percent chance). Otherwise attention
turns to Thursday and Friday. As mentioned before the cluster
analysis shows various solutions in how the trough to the north
phases with the trough from the southwest. This impacts timing,
precipitation location, and amounts. However there is higher
confidence with the warmer temperatures that precipitation type
will be rain and we could even see a few rumbles of thunder. With
moisture originating from the gulf we`ll also need to keep an eye
on the heavy rain potential. Currently there is a 20 percent
chance for 2 inches or more in southwest Lower Michigan.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 500 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025
VFR conditions are expected today with breezy northwest winds
gusting around 20 to 25 knots. MKG could see gusts toward 30 knots
this morning. Lake effect clouds will stream mainly northwest of
TAF sites, however cant rule out FEW to SCT at 4000 to 6000 feet
this afternoon. Winds should subside tonight as the stronger winds
aloft weaken and the inversion builds in.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 500 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025
With the warmer water temperatures we have been able to mix down
stronger gusts resulting in gale conditions. This is expected to
persist through the morning therefore a Gale Warning has been
issued. Wave heights of 8 to 12 feet are expected. This afternoon
winds drop to Small Craft Advisory levels, however some isolated
gales may linger. The downward trend continues into tonight with
waves falling below 4 feet Monday afternoon.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ844>849.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Monday
for LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...RAH
MARINE...RAH
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
