503
FXUS63 KGRR 261903
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
303 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Fair weather will dominate the pattern into mid week
- More active pattern the latter half of the week into the weekend
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025
- Fair weather will dominate the pattern into mid week
High pressure that is resting over Ontario and Quebec will
dominate the weather pattern for at least the next few days. A
large upper level low remains just off the east coast with a low
traversing through the Tennessee Valley and a large upper level
trough is setting up over the intermountain west.
That will allow for dry weather with clear skies causing slightly
below normal min temperatures and around normal Max Temps through
the first half of the week.
- More active pattern the latter half of the week into the weekend
The second half of the week is when things begin to get
interesting. The interplay from the three previously mentioned
low pressure systems will dominate the forecast period. By Tuesday
evening, the trough to the west should infiltrate down through
central Canada and through the Great Plains as a High pressure
system builds over the West Coast.
The weak low moving through the Tennessee valley will move
eastward and get enveloped by low off the east coast that should
begin to retrograde west ward into the Mid Atlantic region. The
upper level ridge should lift northward due to this and the upper
level low from the west will get pushed southward through Illinois
and through Indiana, Ohio, etc.
By Wednesday the High will continue to get pushed northward and
the strong low from the west will move through central US and into
the Ohio Valley area. The main caveat in the models is their
handling of the retrograding low. However, They are all in good
agreement on the High pressure and the low from the west.
That interaction should keep Michigan dry through Wednesday,
though there is a low chance for showers if the low shifts to the
north.
The mid to long range models and ensembles are in fair agreement
that he upper level low will shift northward through the Mid
Atlantic Thursday into Friday, and into Quebec, Friday into
Saturday. What that means for Michigan, is that we will be on the
backside of the low, with the easterly flow then shifting to
northerly flow with lake enhanced showers possible late Thursday
through Friday.
There remains quite a bit that could shift but it could be a wet
Halloween. The good news, is that the dewpoints should be above
freezing with an unsaturated DGZ, so snow is not likely.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 116 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025
VFR conditions will continue through Monday. East winds today
around 10 knots will diminish this evening to less than 8 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025
Offshore winds will continue the next several days, so waves will
generally be a foot or less close to the coast, and about 2 to 4
feet a couple miles out. Winds will get stronger on Monday night
into Tuesday as low pressure tracks south and then east of Lower
Michigan. East to northeast winds will continue to gust 25 knots
or greater Tuesday through Thursday and a Small Craft Advisory
will be needed during that time. The highest winds, gusting to 30
knots, are expected south of Grand Haven.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Ceru
AVIATION...Ostuno
MARINE...Ostuno
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
