199
FXUS63 KGRR 101828
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
128 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Turning colder; rain showers Wednesday
- Lakeshore rain/snow showers Thursday night
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026
- Turning colder; rain showers Wednesday
Skies are clear and temperatures are well in the 60s...over 10
degrees above normal. A cold front moved across the cwa earlier
today and highs tomorrow will be below normal in the mid 40s. High
clouds will begin to filter in tonight ahead of the next clipper.
- Lakeshore rain/snow showers Thursday night
We`re moving into a pattern that will have a taste of winter with
it. A clipper currently over the intermountain west will take a
track toward northern IN by Wednesday afternoon. This clipper will
be the start of a huge upper low development. Light rain showers
are expected Wednesday afternoon as the surface low arrives, but
qpf looks limited to around a tenth of an inch. Meanwhile, as the
clipper moves east, strong north flow will develop behind it and
draw another short wave south from Canada. The main dynamics will
remain over the lake and so we`ll have highest PoPs near the lake
shore Thursday and Friday. Lake effect rain and snow showers are
going to develop as h8 temps fall to -6c, creating lake delta t in
the mid teens. If any snow falls, it`s likely to be over the
northwest cwa Thursday night. Air temperatures Thursday and Friday
will be too warm for snow. However, the air may be cold enough for
some light snow Thursday night near the lake shore south of LDM. A
few tenths of an inch of snow are possible. However, there`s a 50%
chance of an inch or two and a 30% chance of around 3, generally
between Hart and Ludington.
The upper low is progd to shear out by Saturday leading to a dry
weekend. Temperatures will remain chilly through the weekend with
highs in the 40s. A slight moderation in temperatures occur early
next week when highs approach 50 as ridging moves overhead.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026
VFR conditions expected through 08 Z before quiet conditions at the
surface allow for fog to develop. Visibility is expected to clear up
by 14 Z as daytime heating ramps up. There are moderate
precipitation chances at the end of the period, but timing and
intensity are still unclear at this time.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Wednesday to 7 PM EST Friday for
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...Angerman
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion
